Seven Rules of Strategic Guessing

A few years ago I stood facing a group of well-heeled executives and CEOs at a conference to deliver a talk on strategic planning.

“Which of your companies plan on an annual basis?” I asked.

Only a quarter of my audience raised their hands. I opened my eyes in shock.  

“To those of you who don’t plan on an annual basis, why not?” I pressed.

In one way or another, they answered that they were too busy fighting fires to have time for that. This same group of executives then complained about low growth and no profits. They blamed the economy for their problems. With that, I suddenly understood: clearly, they were nincompoops. These CEOs did not make the connection that planning helps you deal with the economy and the issues that challenge your business.

Before we go further, let’s define what we mean by strategic guessing/planning. Rework, a book written by successful software entrepreneurs Jason Fried and David Heinemeier Hansson, declares that planning has been replaced by guessing. There is something to this. The past two years have presented a very uncertain climate for most businesses. If guessing has become “as good as it gets”, then you absolutely need a process by which to look at the future and make educated and measured calculations about creating a bright organizational future. However, while tactics are a part of this process, strategic guessing/planning focuses executives on the strategy and future moves that the company will take to achieve its health and growth.

The fact is that many small- to mid-sized companies do not have a structured process from which to conduct strategic planning. This is like many adults who do not exercise, despite knowing it’s good for them. Perfect health isn’t guaranteed by regular exercise, but the likelihood of attaining good health is dramatically increased. Strategic breakthrough business guessing/planning works for businesses in much the same way as exercise works for the individual.

Over the next few weeks I will present a streamlined list of my company’s most critical rules for strategic guessing/planning. There are only 120 of them. So, music please! What? Okay! Take it easy! (You get overwhelmed so easily.) We will go over just seven rules of planning. Is that better?